USDCAD on Friday dropped -0.04% to 1.37091. Week ending 2023-10-20 rose 0.4%. . What’s going on.
USDCAD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.04% | -5.4 Pips |  | ||
| Week 2023-10-20 | 0.4% | 54.1 Pips |  | ||
| October | 0.97% | 132.1 Pips | | ||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 03:00 PM Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (1-mth) Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12-mth)
What happened over the week
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Trade (1-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.3% in July Source: Statistics Canada
🇺🇸 In the week ending 14 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 198K compared to previous figure 209K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in October exceed forecast and improved to -9 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in September
🇺🇸 U.S. Building Permits (1-mth) in September dropped to 1.475M compared to previous figure 1.541M (revised from 1.543M) Source: Census Bureau
🇨🇦 Canada BoC CPI Inflation Rate Core (1-mth) in September below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.1% in August Source: Bank of Canada
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.8, revised from 0.6% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in October below forecast and dropped to -4.6 points compared to previous figure 1.9 points in September
From X (Twitter)
In September 2023, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, down from a 4.0% gain in August. Consult our latest article for more information: https://t.co/ryNQdEV41a. pic.twitter.com/8SFxVOw7Bb
— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) October 17, 2023
What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCAD on Friday dropped -0.04% to 1.37091. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-10-20, the pair rose 0.4% or 54.1 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.36020.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.37661 (WR1) with break above could target 1.38230 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.36020 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.37410 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of October, USDCAD is up by 0.97% or 132.1 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.39051 |
| R2 | 1.38230 |
| R1 | 1.37661 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.36840 |
| S1 | 1.36271 |
| S2 | 1.35450 |
| S3 | 1.34881 |
You might also be interested in:
Retail trade, August 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
Powell, Opening Remarks Source: Federal Reserve New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings from August 21 and September 20, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau Consumer Price Index, September 2023 Source: Statistics Canada Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2023 Source: Bank of Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, August 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
