USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.05%	4.5 Pips
Week 2023-10-20	-1.2%	-108.6 Pips
October	-2.53%	-231.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM GDP Annualized
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12-mth)

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 In the week ending 14 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 198K compared to previous figure 209K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in October exceed forecast and improved to -9 points compared to previous figure -13.5 points in September
🇺🇸 U.S. Building Permits (1-mth) in September dropped to 1.475M compared to previous figure 1.541M (revised from 1.543M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.8, revised from 0.6% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in October below forecast and dropped to -4.6 points compared to previous figure 1.9 points in September

From X (Twitter)

Consumer prices decreased by 0.1% in September #statistics https://t.co/GdJt52ajZ2 pic.twitter.com/md8VVih5lZ

— Swiss Statistics (@swissstatistics) October 3, 2023

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.05% to 0.89133. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-10-20, the pair dropped -1.2% or -108.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.89019.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.88627 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.88122 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.90422 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.89019 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, USDCHF is down by -2.53% or -231.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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