AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.17%	10.7 Pips
Week 2023-10-27	0.35%	21.8 Pips
October	-1.59%	-102.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 12:30 AM Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Wed 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Thu 12:30 AM Trade Balance (1-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in October unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in September. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October exceed forecast and rose to 63.8 points compared to previous figure 63 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth)| Sep in September unchanged at 0.4% compared to previous report in August.
🇦🇺 Australia Producer Price Index (12-mth) in Q3 below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 3.9% in Q2
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in September rose to 5.8% compared to previous figure -0.7% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 21 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 210K compared to previous figure 198K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 2.1% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇦🇺 Australia Monthly CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 5.6% compared to previous figure 5.2% in August Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

From X (Twitter)

Australia's #CPI grew 1.2% QoQ and 5.4% YoY in Q3 2023, down from 6.0% YoY in Q2.

Both goods & services inflation ticked down to 4.9% YoY & 5.8% YoY.

Housing (2.2% QoQ) & transport (3.2% QoQ) grew the most thanks to rising energy prices.

(@ABSStats) https://t.co/j7Uzr8KZH9 pic.twitter.com/jzWlo1iXZl

— MTS Insights (@MTSInsights) October 25, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.17% to 0.63314. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-27, the pair rose 0.35% or 21.8 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.63995 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.63336. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.62698 or 0.62676 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.63995 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, AUDUSD is down by -1.59% or -102.6 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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