EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0%	0.2 Pips
Week 2023-10-27	-0.31%	-32.5 Pips
October	-0.1%	-10.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 07:00 AM GDP (3-mth)
Mon 07:00 AM GDP (12-mth)
Mon 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Mon 10:00 PM Day of Reformation
Tue 07:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Wed 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in October unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in September. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October exceed forecast and rose to 63.8 points compared to previous figure 63 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth)| Sep in September unchanged at 0.4% compared to previous report in August.
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in September rose to 5.8% compared to previous figure -0.7% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 21 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 210K compared to previous figure 198K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 2.1% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Current Assessment in October exceed forecast and rose to 89.2 points compared to previous figure 88.7 points in September Source: ifo Institute
🇪🇺 Euro Area HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 46.5 points compared to previous figure 47.2 points in September
🇩🇪 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in November exceed forecast and dropped to -28.1 points compared to previous figure -26.7, revised from -26.5 points in October Source: GfK
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to -17.9 points compared to previous figure -17.8 points in September Source: DG ECFIN

From X (Twitter)

Today we kept our key interest rates unchanged.

Our past interest rate hikes are already helping push inflation down.

Our future decisions will depend on how we see the economy and inflation developing.

Read more https://t.co/JWogBYZDnY pic.twitter.com/5HypP3xw4m

— European Central Bank (@ecb) October 26, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped 0% to 1.05605. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-27, the pair dropped -0.31% or -32.5 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.05218.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.06943 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.05922. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.05218 or 1.04901 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.05218 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, EURUSD is down by -0.1% or -10.4 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
In October 2023, household confidence has slightly improved Source: INSEE
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement Source: European Central Bank
Monetary policy decisions Source: European Central Bank
Christine Lagarde: Remarks delivered at the Bank of Greece on the occasion of the external Governing Council monetary policy meeting in Athens Source: European Central Bank
Powell, Introductory Remarks Source: Federal Reserve
Modest growth, against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties Source: INSEE
Decline in business births registered in September 2023 Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the business climate remains deteriorated in the building craft sector Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the business climate in the real-estate development has deteriorated again Source: INSEE
In October 2023, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on their activity has slightly improved Source: INSEE
Euro area government deficit at 3.6% and EU at 3.3% of GDP Source: Eurostat
Government debt down to 90.3% of GDP in euro area Source: Eurostat
Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.3% of GDP in the euro area and at 3.2% of GDP in the EU Source: Eurostat