GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.05%	-6 Pips
Week 2023-10-27	-0.31%	-38 Pips
October	-0.61%	-75 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Thu 12:00 PM Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
Thu 12:00 PM Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate)
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in October unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in September. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October exceed forecast and rose to 63.8 points compared to previous figure 63 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth)| Sep in September unchanged at 0.4% compared to previous report in August.
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in September rose to 5.8% compared to previous figure -0.7% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 21 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 210K compared to previous figure 198K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 2.1% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇬🇧 U.K. Employment Change in August exceed forecast and improved to -82K compared to previous figure -207K in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3-mth) in August below forecast and dropped to 4.2% compared to previous figure 4.3% in July Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Claimant Count Change in September exceed forecast and rose to 20.4K compared to previous figure 0.9K in August Source: Office for National Statistics

From X (Twitter)

The new adjusted Labour Market data published today show:

️▪️ employment was 75.7%

▪️ unemployment was 4.2%

▪️ economic inactivity was 20.9%

➡️ https://t.co/AOilwsHImF pic.twitter.com/Y58p2Py1zJ

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 24, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.05% to 1.21220. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-10-27, the pair dropped -0.31% or -38 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.20690.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.22887 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.21599. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.20690 or 1.20311 (WS1) as immediate support level. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.20690 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, GBPUSD is down by -0.61% or -75 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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