USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.38%	34 Pips
Week 2023-10-27	1.22%	108.4 Pips
October	-1.35%	-123.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:40 PM SNB’s Chairman Thomas Jordan speech
Wed 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Thu 07:30 AM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in October unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in September. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October exceed forecast and rose to 63.8 points compared to previous figure 63 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth)| Sep in September unchanged at 0.4% compared to previous report in August.
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in September rose to 5.8% compared to previous figure -0.7% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 21 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 210K compared to previous figure 198K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 2.1% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇨🇭 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations in October exceed forecast and dropped to -37.8 points compared to previous figure -27.6 points in September Source: ZEW

From X (Twitter)

Consumer prices decreased by 0.1% in September #statistics https://t.co/GdJt52ajZ2 pic.twitter.com/md8VVih5lZ

— Swiss Statistics (@swissstatistics) October 3, 2023

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.38% to 0.90217. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-10-27, the pair rose 1.22% or 108.4 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.90350 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.89815. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.88878 or 0.89280 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.90350 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of October, USDCHF is down by -1.35% or -123.4 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Gross domestic product by canton – Overall economic recovery in 2021 Source: Federal Statistical Office
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
Powell, Introductory Remarks Source: Federal Reserve