USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.51%	-76.9 Pips
Week 2023-10-27	-0.15%	-23.2 Pips
October	0.18%	26.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 03:00 AM Bank of Japan Short-Term Policy Interest Rate
Wed 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM Culture Day
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in October unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in September. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in October exceed forecast and rose to 63.8 points compared to previous figure 63 points in September Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (1-mth)| Sep in September unchanged at 0.4% compared to previous report in August.
🇯🇵 Japan Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) (12-mth) in October exceed forecast and rose to 3.3% compared to previous figure 2.8% in September Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇯🇵 Japan Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (12-mth) in October exceed forecast and rose to 2.7% compared to previous figure 2.5% in September Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense in September rose to 5.8% compared to previous figure -0.7% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 21 October, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 210K compared to previous figure 198K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 2.1% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

From X (Twitter)

Core consumer inflation in Tokyo, considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends, unexpectedly accelerated this month — a sign of broadening price pressures that may keep alive expectations of near-term end to ultralow interest rates. https://t.co/62fHJbj1nZ

— The Japan Times (@japantimes) October 27, 2023

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.51% to 149.60. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-10-27, the pair dropped -0.15% or -23.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 150.78 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 149.90. On the downside, we are looking at week low 149.32 or 149.02 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 149.32 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, USDJPY is up by 0.18% or 26.9 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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