AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	1.14%	73.2 Pips
Week 2023-11-03	2.8%	177 Pips
November	2.71%	171.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 03:30 AM RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Tue 03:30 AM RBA Cash Rate Statement
Wed 02:15 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 12:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in October added 150K jobs, unemployment rate changed little at 3.9%. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Retail Sales (3-mth) in Q3 exceed forecast and rose to 0.2% compared to previous figure -0.6, revised from -0.5% in Q2
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 2.8% compared to previous figure 1, revised from 1.2% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 3.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in October dropped to 36.836K compared to previous figure 47.457K in September
🇦🇺 Australia Trade Balance (1-mth) in September below forecast and dropped to 6786M compared to previous figure 9640M in August Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in September exceed forecast and rose to 9.553M compared to previous figure 9.497, revised from 9.61M in August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia Building Permits (1-mth) in September below forecast and dropped to -4.6% compared to previous figure 7% in August Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
🇦🇺 Australia AiG Industry Index in September dropped to -9.9 points compared to previous figure -3.5 points in August
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in August exceed forecast and dropped to 0.6% compared to previous figure 0.8% in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q3 exceed forecast and rose to 1.1% compared to previous figure 1% in Q2
🇦🇺 Australia Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 0.9% compared to previous figure 0.2% in August Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

From X (Twitter)

The rise in September was driven by lower price growth for retail goods, the unusually warm weather and special events like the FIFA Women's World Cup. Visit https://t.co/EfGFP4gU8k pic.twitter.com/ZCPMiH7FF3

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) November 3, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 1.14% to 0.65082. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-11-03, the pair rose 2.8% or 177 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.65796 (WR1) with break above could target 0.66510 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.63140 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.65182 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is up by 2.71% or 171.7 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in October added 150K jobs, unemployment rate changed little at 3.9%. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau