EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	1.03%	108.9 Pips
Week 2023-11-03	1.61%	169.5 Pips
November	1.47%	155.6 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 10:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Wed 02:15 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 03:00 PM Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment in October added 150K jobs, unemployment rate changed little at 3.9%. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇪🇺 Euro Area Unemployment Rate in September exceed forecast and rose to 6.5% compared to previous figure 6.4% in August Source: Eurostat
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and rose to 2.8% compared to previous figure 1, revised from 1.2% in August Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 3.5% in Q2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in October dropped to 36.836K compared to previous figure 47.457K in September
🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Rate seasonal adjustment. in October rose to 5.8% compared to previous figure 5.7% in September Source: Destatis
🇺🇸 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at 5.5% compared to previous rate 5.5% Source: Federal Reserve
🇺🇸 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in September exceed forecast and rose to 9.553M compared to previous figure 9.497, revised from 9.61M in August Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in August exceed forecast and dropped to 0.6% compared to previous figure 0.8% in July
🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Cost Index in Q3 exceed forecast and rose to 1.1% compared to previous figure 1% in Q2
🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.1% in Q2 Source: Eurostat
🇪🇺 Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 2.9% compared to previous figure 4.3% in September Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3% compared to previous figure 4.3% in September Source: Destatis
🇩🇪 Germany CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 4.5% in September
🇩🇪 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (1-mth) in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0.2% in September
🇩🇪 Germany CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September
🇪🇺 Euro Area Business Climate (BCI) in October improved to -0.33 points compared to previous figure -0.36 points in September Source: European Commission
🇩🇪 Germany GDP (12-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to -0.3% compared to previous figure -0.2% in Q2 Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)

From X (Twitter)

Payroll employment rises by 150,000 in October; unemployment rate changes little at 3.9% https://t.co/ZwrVfLviqL #JobsReport #BLSdata

— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) November 3, 2023

Euro area #unemployment at 6.5% in September 2023, EU at 6.0% https://t.co/cZihDaJGkB pic.twitter.com/jOS01OudlS

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) November 3, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 1.03% to 1.07300. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-11-03, the pair rose 1.61% or 169.5 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.08123 (WR1) with break above could target 1.08946 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.05165 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.07467 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of November, EURUSD is up by 1.47% or 155.6 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in October added 150K jobs, unemployment rate changed little at 3.9%. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
In September 2023, manufacturing output decreased (‑0.4%) Source: INSEE
In Q3 2023, private payroll employment was virtually stable (-0.1%; flash estimate) Source: INSEE
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Philip R. Lane: Monetary policy tightening in the euro area Source: European Central Bank
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau
In August 2023, manufacturing turnover went up slightly (+0.3%) Source: INSEE
In September 2023, agricultural producer prices went down again year on year (‑8.9% after ‑7.4%) Source: INSEE
Output in services rebounded in August 2023 (+0.3%) Source: INSEE
Euro area annual inflation down to 2.9% Source: Eurostat
GDP down by 0.1% in the euro area and up by 0.1% in the EU Source: Eurostat
In August 2023, sales volume in trade bounced back (+0.3%) Source: INSEE
In October 2023, consumer prices increased by 4.0% year on year Source: INSEE
In September 2023 the industrial producer prices rose over a month (+0.7% after +0.8%) but continued to go down over a year (-2.8% after -3.2%) Source: INSEE
Household consumption expenditure on goods rose slightly in September 2023 (+0.2%) Source: INSEE
GDP grew modestly in Q3 2023 (+0.1% after +0.6%) Source: INSEE
Inflation rate expected to be +3.8% in October 2023 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2023 0.1% lower than in the previous quarter Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and our monetary policy stance Source: European Central Bank