EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.16%	16.6 Pips
Week 2023-11-10	-0.43%	-46.3 Pips
November	1.03%	109.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in November preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in October Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in November preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 60.4 points compared to previous figure 63.8 points in October Source: University of Michigan
🇪🇺 Euro Area Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in September below forecast and dropped to -2.9% compared to previous figure -1.8, revised from -2.1% in August Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in October unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in September. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Destatis
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (12-mth) in September below forecast and dropped to -12.4% compared to previous figure -11.5% in August
🇪🇺 Euro Area Producer Price Index (1-mth) in September dropped to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.7, revised from 0.6% in August
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production n.seasonal adjustment. w.d.a. (12-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to -3.7% compared to previous figure -2% in August
🇩🇪 Germany Industrial Production seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to -1.4% compared to previous figure -0.2% in August
🇪🇺 Euro Area Sentix Investor Confidence in November below forecast and improved to -18.6 points compared to previous figure -21.9 points in October
🇩🇪 Germany HCOB Services PMI in October exceed forecast and rose to 48.2 points compared to previous figure 48 points in September
🇩🇪 Germany HCOB Composite PMI in October exceed forecast and rose to 45.9 points compared to previous figure 45.8 points in September
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders n.seasonal adjustment. (12-mth) in September rose to -4.3% compared to previous figure -6.3% (revised from -4.2%)
🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 3.9% in August

From X (Twitter)

Euro area #RetailTrade down by 0.3% in September 2023 over August, -2.9% compared with September 2022 https://t.co/R71hBKwKLQ pic.twitter.com/xNlFDWZWlR

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) November 8, 2023

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.16% to 1.06837. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-11-10, the pair dropped -0.43% or -46.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.06559.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.07563 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.06986. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.06559 or 1.06410 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.06559 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, EURUSD is up by 1.03% or 109.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Powell, Opening Remarks Source: Federal Reserve
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Volume of retail trade down by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Inflation rate in October 2023 at +3.8% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Powell, Opening Remarks Source: Federal Reserve
Philip R. Lane: The transmission of monetary policy tightening and medium-term growth prospects Source: European Central Bank
Industrial producer prices up by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU Source: Eurostat
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau