AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.72%	46.6 Pips
Week 2023-11-17	2.46%	156.3 Pips
November	2.8%	177.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:30 AM RBA Meeting Minutes
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 08:35 AM RBA Governor Michele Bullock speech
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

From X (Twitter)

The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in October (seasonally adjusted).

Visit https://t.co/aA093yeB6D pic.twitter.com/Oy7geouc9t

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) November 16, 2023

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.72% to 0.65142. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair rose 2.46% or 156.3 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.63477.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.65422 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.64680. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.63477 or 0.63939 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.65422 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is up by 2.8% or 177.7 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Unemployment rate back up to 3.7% in October, employment increasing by 55,000 people Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau