GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.39%	48.2 Pips
Week 2023-11-17	1.95%	238.6 Pips
November	2.59%	314.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:45 PM Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 09:30 AM Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth) in October below forecast and improved to -0.3% compared to previous figure -1.1, revised from -0.9% in September Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI Inflation Rate (CPIH) (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4.6% compared to previous figure 6.7% in September Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Retail Price Index (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0.5% in September Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Claimant Count Rate in October unchanged at 4% compared to previous report in September. Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Labour Market Employment Change in September exceed forecast and dropped to -207K compared to previous figure -82K in August Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3-mth) in September unchanged at 4.2% compared to previous report in August. Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in September exceed forecast and dropped to 7.9% compared to previous figure 8.2, revised from 8.1% in August Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in September dropped to 7.7% compared to previous figure 7.8% in August Source: Office for National Statistics
🇬🇧 U.K. Claimant Count Change in October below forecast and dropped to 17.8K compared to previous figure 20.4K in September Source: Office for National Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

From X (Twitter)

In the year to October 2023:

▪️ Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs rose by 4.7%, down from 6.3% in September

▪️ Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 4.6%, down from 6.7% in September

➡️ https://t.co/8axCF0xTBa pic.twitter.com/60khlBx0c4

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 15, 2023

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.39% to 1.24623. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair rose 1.95% or 238.6 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, GBPUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.25754 (WR1) with break above could target 1.26886 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.22103 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.25060 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of November, GBPUSD is up by 2.59% or 314.1 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Retail sales, Great Britain: October 2023 Source: National Statistics
Retail sales, Great Britain: October 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Producer Price Inflation, UK: October 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2023 Source: National Statistics
Producer Price Inflation, UK: October 2023 Source: National Statistics
Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2023 time series Source: National Statistics
People claiming unemployment benefits by constituency Source: House of Commons
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
UK labour market: November 2023 Source: National Statistics
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau