NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.35%	21 Pips
Week 2023-11-17	1.76%	103.6 Pips
November	3.28%	190 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day
Thu 09:45 PM Retail Trade Turnover (3-mth)

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Release of additional monthly price indexes. https://t.co/OvY2sN9ceI pic.twitter.com/1jhw7Q8Dgr

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) November 13, 2023

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.35% to 0.59914. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair rose 1.76% or 103.6 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.58631.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.60544 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.59696. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.58631 or 0.58849 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.60544 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of November, NZDUSD is up by 3.28% or 190 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
October electronic card spending in the retail industries decreased by 0.7 percent ($44 million) Source: Stats NZ
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau