USDCAD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.28%	-38.7 Pips
Week 2023-11-17	-0.59%	-81.6 Pips
November	-1.13%	-156.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Wed 04:30 PM Bank of Canada’s Governor Tiff Macklem speech
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

From X (Twitter)

Senior Deputy Governor Rogers explains in her speech why interest rates may stay higher than Canadians are used to and how, by adjusting early, we can minimize future financial risks.https://t.co/JcVDQPtCFn#cdnecon #FinancialStability @AdvocisVan pic.twitter.com/Mqnwi4WfOV

— Bank of Canada (@bankofcanada) November 9, 2023

What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCAD on Friday dropped -0.28% to 1.37154. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair dropped -0.59% or -81.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.36500.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.38432 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.37362. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.36500 or 1.36292 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.36500 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, USDCAD is down by -1.13% or -156.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, September 2023 Source: Statistics Canada
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau