USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.34%	-30.6 Pips
Week 2023-11-17	-1.76%	-158.4 Pips
November	-2.66%	-242.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇨🇭 Switzerland Industrial Production (12-mth) in Q3 rose to 2% compared to previous figure -0.7% (revised from -0.8%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

From X (Twitter)

Secondary sector increases production in the 3rd quarter by 1.6% #statistics https://t.co/emz6NqGTRy

— Swiss Statistics (@swissstatistics) November 17, 2023

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.34% to 0.88565. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair dropped -1.76% or -158.4 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.88520.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.87883 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.87200 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.90522 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.88520 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, USDCHF is down by -2.66% or -242.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer and Import Price Index rose by 0.2% in October Source: Federal Statistical Office
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau