USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.72%	-108.4 Pips
Week 2023-11-17	-1.21%	-183.3 Pips
November	-1.31%	-198.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Wed 03:00 PM Labor Thanksgiving Day
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇯🇵 Japan GDP Deflator (12-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 5.1% compared to previous figure 3.5% in Q2
🇯🇵 Japan GDP (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and dropped to -0.5% compared to previous figure 1.2% in Q2 Source: Cabinet Office
🇯🇵 Japan GDP (12-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and dropped to -2.1% compared to previous figure 4.8% in Q2
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service

From X (Twitter)

Highlights of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2023) https://t.co/805VGFPenA

— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) November 15, 2023

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.72% to 149.64. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair dropped -1.21% or -183.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 151.91 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 150.25. On the downside, we are looking at week low 149.20 or 148.59 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 149.20 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, USDJPY is down by -1.31% or -198.8 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Report on Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity (September 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
The Time Series Data on Current Production Statistics Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Machinery Orders Source: Cabinet Office
Trade Statistics (October 2023 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Monthly Report of Current Production Statistics (September 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Revised Report on Indices of Industrial Production (September 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Monthly Report on the Current Survey of Commerce (September 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Quarterly GDP bulletin Source: Cabinet Office
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BOJ Review) Developments in Corporate Bond Spreads at Issuance Source: Bank of Japan
Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau