EURUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 1.08529. Week ending 2024-01-26 moved lower by -0.4%. What happened.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
PeriodPctChgMomentum
Friday0.07%7.5 Pips
Week 2024-01-26-0.4%-43.1 Pips
January-1.67%-184.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Tue 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Wed 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Thu 10:00 AM Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth)
Thu 10:00 AM Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth) in December unchanged at 2.6% compared to previous report in November. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast
🇩🇪 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in February exceed forecast and dropped to -29.7 points compared to previous figure -25.4, revised from -25.1 points in January Source: GfK
🇺🇸 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Price Index in Q4 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 1.5% compared to previous figure 3.3% in Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q4 preliminary estimate unchanged at 2% compared to previous report in Q3. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 In the week ending 20 January, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 214K compared to previous figure 189K (revised from 187K) Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in December exceed forecast and rose to 0.6% compared to previous figure 0.4, revised from 0.5% in November Source: Census Bureau
🇪🇺 Euro Area ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) unchanged at 4.5% compared to previous rate 4.5% Source: European Central Bank
🇩🇪 Germany ifo Current Assessment in January below forecast and dropped to 87 points compared to previous figure 88.5 points in December Source: ifo Institute
🇪🇺 Euro Area Consumer Confidence in January preliminary estimate exceed forecast and dropped to -16.1 points compared to previous figure -15 points in December Source: DG ECFIN

From X (Twitter)


What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 1.08529. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-01-26, the pair dropped -0.4% or -43.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.08125.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09323 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.08659. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.08125 or 1.07995 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.08125 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of January, EURUSD is down by -1.67% or -184.5 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R31.10391
R21.09857
R11.09193
Weekly Pivot1.08659
S11.07995
S21.07461
S31.06797

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