USDCAD Analysis

Upcoming key events (GMT+8)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

The USDCAD currency pair experienced a decline of 0.27% on Thursday, settling at 1.37030, with a trading range between a high of 1.37400 and a low of 1.36930. The price movement lacked any major economic releases or scheduled events specific to the USDCAD pair during this period, leaving the market to react to broader economic indicators from the United States.

Recent data from the U.S. provided mixed signals. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a significant improvement, rising to 11 points in April from -0.2 points in March. This positive development was accompanied by a decrease in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, which fell to 207,000 for the week ending April 11, down from 219,000 previously. Additionally, the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated robust growth, climbing to 26.7 points in April from 18.1 points in March.

However, U.S. Industrial Production figures presented a more subdued picture. While the month-on-month change remained steady at 0.2% from February to March, there was a notable decrease of 0.5% in March, following a revised increase from 0.2% to 0.7% in February. These mixed economic signals may have contributed to the uncertainty and subsequent decline in the USDCAD pair.

With no major upcoming events scheduled, the market’s focus remains on interpreting these recent economic indicators. The overall sentiment appears cautious, as traders assess the implications of these mixed signals on the broader economic outlook. The lack of clear directional drivers specific to the USDCAD pair suggests that traders are reacting to broader market trends and data releases from the U.S. economy.

What can we expect from USDCAD today?

USDCAD is exhibiting a bearish daily outlook, closing at 1.37030 with a decline of 0.27% on Thursday. The pair remains below the 9-day EMA, indicating continued downward pressure, although the stochastic oscillator is rising in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for a corrective bounce.

If bullish momentum gains traction, a break above the daily pivot at 1.3712 could see USDCAD testing the first resistance level (R1) at 1.3731. Further bullish sentiment might propel the pair towards the second resistance level (R2) at 1.3759, though sustained upward movement would require overcoming the current bearish weekly outlook.

Conversely, if the bearish trend persists, USDCAD may decline towards the first support level (S1) at 1.3684. A breach of this level could lead to further downside, targeting the second support level (S2) at 1.3665. The pair’s position below the 9-day EMA supports the bearish scenario, aligning with the overall weekly performance.

Key levels to watch out: