USDCAD Analysis

Upcoming key events (GMT+8)

What happened lately

On Monday, the USDCAD currency pair experienced a decline of 0.37%, closing at 1.36420. The trading session saw a high of 1.37090 and a low of 1.36320. This movement in the currency pair occurred amidst the release of key Canadian inflation data, which likely influenced market sentiment.

Recent economic data from Canada revealed an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for a 12-month period to 2.4% in March, up from 1.8% in February. Additionally, the Bank of Canada Core Inflation CPI for the same period rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. These figures suggest a rising inflationary trend in Canada, which could have implications for monetary policy and the Canadian dollar’s strength.

Looking ahead, traders should pay attention to upcoming high-impact economic events in the United States. Scheduled for Tuesday are the Monthly Retail Trade and Retail Trade Control Group reports, both at 8:30 PM GMT+8, followed by testimony from Fed Chair-designate Warsh at 10:00 PM GMT+8. These events are likely to provide further direction for the USDCAD pair.

Overall, the market sentiment appears cautious as traders digest the recent Canadian inflation data and await significant U.S. economic releases. The interplay between Canadian inflation figures and upcoming U.S. economic indicators will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the USDCAD exchange rate.

What can we expect from USDCAD today?

USDCAD is experiencing a bearish trend, with a daily performance of -0.37% and closing at 1.36420. The pair is trading below its 9-day EMA, indicating potential continued downward pressure.

If USDCAD manages to break above the daily pivot of 1.3661, we could see a bullish scenario unfold. Traders should watch for a move towards the first resistance level at 1.369, and if momentum continues, the next target would be 1.3738. The rising stochastic in the oversold zone may support this upward movement.

On the bearish side, a sustained move below the daily low of 1.36320 could trigger further declines. Key support levels to monitor are at 1.3613 and 1.3584. Given the bearish daily and weekly outlook, these levels could be tested if downward momentum persists.

Key levels to watch out: