USDCHF Analysis

Upcoming key events (GMT+8)

What happened lately

The USDCHF pair experienced an upward movement on Wednesday, rising by 0.51% to reach 0.78480, with the day’s trading range spanning from a low of 0.77890 to a high of 0.78490. This price action comes amid several notable economic releases and market developments.

Recent economic data from the United States has been a key focus. The Monthly Retail Trade figures for March showed a significant increase to 1.7%, up from 0.6% in February. Similarly, the Retail Trade Control Group rose to 0.7% from 0.5% in February. These stronger-than-expected retail sales figures indicate robust consumer spending, which may have contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

Additionally, the Monthly Retail Trade excluding Automobiles also saw a notable rise to 1.9% from a revised 0.7%. However, the Pending Home Sales for March declined to 1.5% from a revised 2.5%, suggesting some softness in the housing market.

Looking ahead, market participants will be closely monitoring the upcoming speech by SNB Chairman Schlegel, scheduled for Friday at 4:00 PM GMT+8. This event is expected to have a high impact on the CHF, and traders will be keen to gain insights into the Swiss National Bank’s views on monetary policy and economic conditions.

Overall, the recent economic data releases from the US have painted a picture of a resilient consumer sector, which has likely bolstered the US dollar. The market sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic, with traders keeping an eye on upcoming events that could influence the USDCHF pair further.

What can we expect from USDCHF today?

The USDCHF pair is showing a bullish daily outlook with a 0.51% performance, closing at 0.78480. As the price remains above the 9-day EMA, traders in Southeast Asia should be attentive to potential movements in the pair today.

If the USDCHF maintains its upward momentum, a break above the daily high of 0.78490 could trigger further bullish activity. Traders should watch for resistance at R1: 0.78683 and R2: 0.78887 as potential targets. The bullish scenario is supported by the current price being above the 9-day EMA, despite the falling stochastic indicator.

On the downside, a bearish scenario may unfold if the USDCHF fails to hold above the daily pivot of 0.78287. A decline towards the support levels at S1: 0.78083 and S2: 0.77687 could be expected if selling pressure intensifies. The mixed weekly outlook suggests caution, as the pair’s performance could be influenced by short-term fluctuations.

Key levels to watch out: