Eurusd edges lower, remains in consolidation phase
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum |
| Tuesday | -0.08% | -9.0 Pips | ▼ |
| Week to-date | 0% | 0 Pips | ▼ |
| April | 1.45% | 168.0 Pips | ▲ |
Upcoming key events (GMT+8)
| Time (GMT+8) | Currency | Impact | Event |
| Wed 08:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) |
| Wed 08:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) |
| Wed 08:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) |
| Thu 02:00 AM | USD | HIGH | Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) |
| Thu 02:00 AM | USD | HIGH | FOMC Monetary Policy Statement |
| Thu 02:30 AM | USD | HIGH | FOMC Press Conference |
| Thu 02:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) |
| Thu 04:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | GDP (3-mth) |
| Thu 04:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | GDP (12-mth) |
| Thu 05:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) |
| Thu 05:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) |
| Thu 05:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth) |
| Thu 05:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth) |
| Thu 05:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (1-mth) |
| Thu 05:00 PM | EUR | HIGH | Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) |
| Thu 08:15 PM | EUR | HIGH | ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) |
| Thu 08:15 PM | EUR | HIGH | European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision Statement |
| Thu 08:15 PM | EUR | HIGH | ECB Interest Rate on deposit facility |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (1-mth) |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | GDP annual rate |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | GDP Price Index (Quarterly) |
| Thu 08:45 PM | EUR | HIGH | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference |
| Fri 06:00 AM | EUR | NONE | Labour Day |
What happened lately
On Tuesday, the EURUSD pair experienced a slight decline of 0.08%, closing at 1.17110 after reaching a high of 1.17260 and a low of 1.16760. The pair remains in a consolidation phase, with no significant directional bias evident from the recent price action.
Recent economic data releases did not provide clear catalysts for the EURUSD movement. The Euro area Bank Lending Survey and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde were both scheduled, but no actual results or impactful statements were reported. In Germany, retail sales for March showed a month-over-month decrease of 0.6%, while the Euro Area GDP for Q1 reported an annual growth rate of 1.2%.
Looking ahead, market participants are keenly awaiting several high-impact economic events. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will release its CPI Inflation Rate figures for both the 1-month and 12-month periods, along with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Later, the focus will shift to the United States, where the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, accompanied by the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference. On Thursday, the Eurozone will release its GDP data, retail trade turnover, and the ECB will announce its monetary policy decisions.
The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with traders likely positioning themselves ahead of these significant economic releases. The upcoming data, particularly the inflation figures and central bank decisions, could provide further direction for the EURUSD pair. Until then, the market may continue to exhibit consolidation behavior as participants assess the potential impacts of these events on the currency pair.
What can we expect from EURUSD today?
The EURUSD pair closed slightly lower on Tuesday, down by 0.08% at 1.17110, with a mixed daily outlook. The pair’s performance remains flat for the week, reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum.
📈 Bull Scenario A bullish scenario for EURUSD could unfold if the pair manages to break above the immediate resistance at 1.17327 (R1). A sustained move above this level may open the path towards the next resistance at 1.17543 (R2). Traders should watch for any upward momentum that could be triggered by a reversal in the falling stochastic indicator. | 📉 Bear Scenario Conversely, a bearish trend may develop if EURUSD falls below the support level at 1.16827 (S1). A breach of this level could lead to further declines towards the next support at 1.16543 (S2). The pair’s position below the 9-day EMA and the declining stochastic suggest that downward pressure could persist if these support levels are tested. |
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.17827 |
| R2 | 1.17543 |
| R1 | 1.17327 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.17043 |
| S1 | 1.16827 |
| S2 | 1.16543 |
| S3 | 1.16327 |
