AUDUSD declines 0.89% despite Australian inflation data release
AUDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum |
| Wednesday | -0.89% | -64.0 Pips | ▼ |
| Week to-date | -0.45% | -32.0 Pips | ▼ |
| April | 3.13% | 216.0 Pips | ▲ |
Upcoming key events (GMT+8)
| Time (GMT+8) | Currency | Impact | Event |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (1-mth) |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | GDP annual rate |
| Thu 08:30 PM | USD | HIGH | GDP Price Index (Quarterly) |
What happened lately
The AUDUSD pair experienced a notable decline on Wednesday, dropping by 0.89% to close at 0.71160. The trading session saw the pair reach a high of 0.71890 and a low of 0.71000. This downward movement occurred despite the release of key Australian inflation data earlier in the day.
The Australian Monthly CPI Indicator for the 12-month period came in at 4.6, slightly below the consensus expectation of 4.7, but higher than the previous figure of 3.7. Meanwhile, the Trimmed Mean CPI remained steady at 3.3, unchanged from its previous reading. These figures suggest a moderate inflationary environment in Australia, which did not provide enough support to counteract the selling pressure on the Australian dollar.
Looking ahead, market participants are likely to focus on upcoming U.S. economic data scheduled for release on Thursday at 08:30 PM GMT+8. Key events include the PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, for both the monthly and 12-month periods, as well as the GDP annual rate and the GDP Price Index for the quarter. These high-impact releases could significantly influence the USD, thereby affecting the AUDUSD pair.
Overall, the market sentiment appears cautious, with traders possibly positioning themselves ahead of the critical U.S. economic data. The recent decline in the AUDUSD may reflect concerns over the relative economic outlooks between Australia and the United States, although the specific drivers behind the move remain unclear based on the available data. As such, traders will be closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. releases for further direction.
What can we expect from AUDUSD today?
The AUDUSD pair is experiencing a bearish sentiment today, with a daily performance of -0.89% closing at 0.71160. Traders should be cautious as the price remains below the 9-day EMA, indicating potential continued downward pressure.
📈 Bull Scenario For a bullish scenario to unfold, the AUDUSD would need to break above the daily pivot level of 0.7135. If buying momentum strengthens, the pair could target the first resistance level (R1) at 0.717. A further push could see the pair testing the second resistance level (R2) at 0.7224, although this would require significant positive momentum. | 📉 Bear Scenario The bearish outlook remains dominant, with the price currently below the 9-day EMA. A sustained move below the daily low of 0.71000 could trigger further declines, targeting the first support level (S1) at 0.7081. Should selling pressure intensify, the pair might test the second support level (S2) at 0.7046, reinforcing the bearish trend for the day. |
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.7259 |
| R2 | 0.7224 |
| R1 | 0.717 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.7135 |
| S1 | 0.7081 |
| S2 | 0.7046 |
| S3 | 0.6992 |
