EURUSD ends April with 1.54% gain, closing at 1.17300
EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum |
| Thursday | 0.45% | 53.0 Pips | ▲ |
| Week to-date | 0.09% | 10.0 Pips | ▲ |
| April | 1.54% | 178.0 Pips | ▲ |
Upcoming key events (GMT+8)
| Time (GMT+8) | Currency | Impact | Event |
| Fri 10:00 PM | USD | HIGH | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Apr |
What happened lately
The EURUSD currency pair experienced a notable rise of 0.45% on Thursday, closing at 1.17300. This movement marked the end of April with a significant gain of 1.54%, equivalent to an increase of 178.0 pips. The day’s trading saw the pair reach a high of 1.17410 and a low of 1.16540.
In terms of economic data, the Eurozone’s economic releases presented a mixed picture. The Retail Trade Turnover over the past 12 months showed a decline with an actual figure of -2, against a consensus of 0.5, and a previous value of 0.7. Meanwhile, the GDP for the three-month period remained steady at 0.3, aligning with the previous figure but slightly above the consensus of 0.2. The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the month increased to 0.9 from a previous 0.8, while the annual figure was slightly below expectations at 2.2, compared to a consensus of 2.3 and a previous value of 2.3.
Additionally, the Eurozone’s GDP, when seasonally adjusted, showed a slight underperformance with a three-month growth of 0.1, below the consensus of 0.2, and an annual growth of 0.8, which also fell short of the expected 0.9 and previous 1.2. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the month decreased to 1 from a previous 1.3, while the annual rate exceeded expectations at 3, compared to a consensus of 2.9 and a previous 2.6.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank’s interest rates on main refinancing operations and the deposit facility remained unchanged at 2.15 and 2, respectively, aligning with market expectations.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained the Federal Funds Rate at 3.75, consistent with both the consensus and previous figures. The PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, indicated a monthly increase of 0.3 and an annual rise of 3.2, both meeting expectations. The GDP annual rate showed an increase to 2, although it was below the consensus of 2.3, it marked a significant improvement from the previous 0.5.
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely monitoring the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI for April, scheduled for release at 10:00 PM GMT+8, which is expected to have a high impact on the USD.
Overall, the EURUSD’s upward movement reflects a complex interplay of economic data releases, with mixed signals from both the Eurozone and the United States contributing to the current market sentiment.
What can we expect from EURUSD today?
As we enter Thursday’s trading session, EURUSD is showing a bullish daily outlook with a 0.45% increase, closing at 1.17300. The pair remains above the 9-day EMA, suggesting continued upward momentum despite mixed weekly performance.
📈 Bull Scenario A bullish scenario for EURUSD today could be triggered if the pair maintains its position above the daily pivot of 1.17083 and moves past the daily high of 1.17410. Traders should watch for a break above the first resistance level at 1.17627, which could pave the way for further gains towards the second resistance at 1.17953. | 📉 Bear Scenario Conversely, a bearish scenario may unfold if EURUSD fails to hold above the pivot and falls below the first support level at 1.16757. A decline past this point could lead to further losses, with the next key support level at 1.16213 potentially coming into play. The falling stochastic indicator suggests that downward pressure could emerge if bullish momentum wanes. |
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.18497 |
| R2 | 1.17953 |
| R1 | 1.17627 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.17083 |
| S1 | 1.16757 |
| S2 | 1.16213 |
| S3 | 1.15887 |
